In the first quarter of 2018, the European and American economies continued to recover. We expect the basic metal demand to maintain a growth rate of 1% to 3% in the second half of the year. In the post-supply side, it is recommended to pay attention to the beneficiaries under the restructuring of the industrial structure, and at the same time recommend metal products with rigid left shift and demand toughness.
Basic metals: The new supply cycle + demand expectation is the source of price volatility. Under the restructuring of the industrial structure, leading enterprises have the advantage of card position. The administrative factors drive the supply curve to rigidly shift to the left. For example, scrap copper restricts imports, electrolytic aluminum supply elasticity is limited, tin ore taste falls, and the non-ferrous metal industry enters a new supply cycle. The expected fluctuations in the demand side in 2018 have an increased weighting effect on prices. 1, copper. Copper concentrate supply growth declined, environmental protection and other policies restrict the use of scrap copper imports, optimistic about the profit release and valuation repair of scarce large-scale mining investment enterprises. 2, tin. In the main tin mines of the world, Myanmar's original minerals fell from 10% to 1% to 1.5%, and the downstream 50% was used for electronic product welding. The demand side maintained a growth rate of 1% and the toughness was sufficient. 3. Aluminum. In the post-supply-side reform era, it is recommended to grasp the leading beneficiaries under the restructuring of the industrial structure. It is recommended to pay attention to Zijin Mining, Tin Industry, and China Aluminum.
Small metals and new materials: To grasp the metal categories with strategic attributes and emerging industry demand trends, the value of new metal materials is expected to be revalued. 1. Rare earth permanent magnets. The supply of rare earth and permanent magnets is highly concentrated in China. The policy is to drive the core factor of the upward shift of the price of rare earths. New energy vehicles are still the strongest driver of new permanent magnet demand in the future. In the second half of the year, the index of rare earth compliance will be expanded. In the long run, it is the only way for the industry to standardize. 2. Molybdenum tungsten. Benefiting from the exit of high-cost mines, the demand structure of steel and carbide is optimized. 3. Titanium. The recovery of the military boom cycle has boosted the demand for high-end titanium materials. As the titanium processing technology boosted by the big countries, the industry will usher in a profit reversal. 4, cobalt lithium. Demand is growing steadily, and the supply path is relatively certain in the next three years, and prices are expected to remain high.